How bookmakers calculate the probability of an outcome

Calculating the probability of an outcome

The probability of winning x the amount of potential winnings on the current bet — the probability of losing x the amount of potential loss on the current bet.

On the opposite market, the victory of football players from Liverpool with a zero handicap, the bookmaker’s quote is 2. When betting in dollars on a zero handicap of Manchester. No matter how verified the formula of probability theory is in betting on football, hockey, tennis or other sports, not everything is like that. As we already know, the coefficient is 1. However, it is unclear when the bet will be positive, and when it will be negative at a distance.

It turns out that with three losses in a row on a bet with a coefficient of 1. Such calculations are especially relevant for players who prefer to use the Martingale strategy. The use of mathematical calculation in sports betting allows not only to choose an event with an increased probability of winning, but also to increase the game pot due to various financial strategies. Flat betting with a fixed bet size. This is the simplest and most popular way to distribute the game bank, which allows at least not to stay with zero for a few days.

Slightly, but in the black. This strategy will not bring huge winnings, but it will «teach» you to select events correctly and competently analyze possible outcomes with minimal risks of «draining» the bankroll.

The Martingale system is another mathematical strategy based on doubling the bet amount in case of an unsuccessful outcome. At the same time, quotes for the outcome of interest should be equal to or above the 2 mark.

Otherwise, the profit from the won bet will not be able to cover the previous disadvantages. This mathematical strategy of placing sports betting is quite risky, especially if you do not take into account the variance. In case of a prolonged series of failures, the player may not have enough money left in the account to place the next bet, or the bookmaker may refuse to conclude a deal. The essence of the strategy is as follows: if you lose a bet, the amount of the next bet increases by one, and if you win, it decreases by this value.

Players use probability theory in betting on table tennis, basketball, esports and other sports without even realizing this fact. And if all calculations are done correctly, the probability of winning will be higher. So far, there are only formulas for calculating the probability of an event, but you can’t calculate your success in betting.

But you can do everything to increase the probability of your winning. To do this, you need to take only three steps, however, you need to perform them as efficiently as possible.

How bookmakers calculate the probability of an outcome

Also, the analysis will allow you to calculate the probabilities for bets on the following gaming markets:

  • the number of corners;
  • the ratio of unsuccessful scoring chances and the total number of attacks;
  • the number of shots on target;
  • the number of yellow and red cards, violations.

The Monte Carlo method is used to calculate the probability of a combination of all factors that can affect the outcome of the match. Most often, the following are taken into account:

  • injuries of key players;
  • participation in world competitions;
  • transfer cost of the club;
  • statistics of previous meetings;
  • disqualifications;
  • weather;
  • coaching staff;
  • motivation.

The subjective probability of mathematics is the least here, the bet is made based on the experience of an observer or public opinion. Variance in sports betting Even the most perfect formula of probability theory does not guarantee the passage of the bet.

The best sports betting strategies allow you to work competently with the gaming bank without jeopardizing your finances with several losses.

Algorithm for calculating the probability of winning bets

So far, there are only formulas for calculating the probability of an event, but to calculate your success in betting. You will need both data on previous games and the history of personal meetings of teams or athletes.

This information will serve as a basis for further analysis. But it is not necessary to consider the probability of a new game similar to the previous results. Statistics are food for thought, not a ready answer. Determination of indirect and direct factors. Here you need to consider the upcoming event from all sides.

The probability of winning can be increased by playing on your own field. You will also need to evaluate the form of the team, motivation and other points. Therefore, it is better to make a bet on a sport in which the bettor understands. In an unfamiliar discipline, it will not be possible to take into account all the nuances. Search for suitable bids. First of all, we are interested in underestimated outcomes, that is, valui. If the bookmaker made a mistake when calculating the probability, then you definitely need to use it.

But it can be difficult to look for them in the line on your own. Therefore, pros often use special programs. The main thoughts to remember from the lesson Without mathematical analysis, it is impossible to successfully play on bets. It is necessary to learn how to calculate the probability of the outcome of the match.

Probability theory in sports betting: a little bit about the scientific approach

Schedule of the fifth game day. Novak Djokovic: I’m not proud of what I did. I was wrong. Schedule of the sixth game day.

For example, BC «A» offers to bet on the victory of Barcelona by a coefficient of 2, Betting on both outcomes, the bettor is guaranteed to earn. Bookmakers form a line so as to avoid such situations. They carefully monitor competitors’ resources, adjusting their own coefficients. Bookmakers that publish the line earlier than others are more likely to incur losses. Usually professional bettors see potential forks in advance, so they have time to catch good offers.

However, bookmakers who publish odds earlier than others get more customers and look like favorites. Losing money, you can gain in image and number of players. Bookmakers often set odds a few days before the match.

During this time, anything can happen: someone was convicted of doping and disqualified, someone was injured, the match was moved to another stadium, coach and was fired. Any change affects the alignment of forces and coefficients. Progruz is a situation that forces the bookmaker to adjust the odds due to the huge money bets of players on a specific event.

The ideal option for BC is an even distribution of bets on opposite outcomes. This guarantees the bookmaker a profit in the form of the notorious margin.

The office is trying to level out a significant financial bias.